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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."